Putin's War

We are talking about a radical, complete transformation of education to mobilize Russian youth for war, Right now education has two functions—propaganda and basic military training.

This is the ominous warning of Russian sociologist, political scientist and newly minted dissident, Grigory Yudin. One year ago, Yudin predicted that Russia, specifically its dictator Vladimir Putin was "about to start the most senseless war in history."

Indeed he did.

I distinctly remember the discussion last February during the massive buildup of Russian forces along its border with Ukraine, that there was no way Putin would be foolish enough to invade a sovereign nation. I agreed. True, with the "mighty" Russian military behind him I thought, he might be able to overtake Ukraine fairly quickly with a minimum of bloodshed, but winning the peace would be infinitely more difficult.

Boy were we wrong, we in the West that is, at least with the first two points. The people in the East, closer to the action, namely in the countries formerly under the iron fist of the USSR, knew better.

Today, February 24, 2023, marks the first anniversary of yet another day of infamy, the day Russia invaded Ukraine marking the beginning of the most senseless war in history.

It's hard to get into the head of a sociopathic dictator but I think it is safe to assume that Putin could not have imagined last February that one year later he would still be fighting his war, continuing to send tens of thousands of his nation's young people to their deaths in his futile (at least up until now) attempt to occupy Ukraine. That doesn't even mention the murder, rape and plunder that his military is inflicting upon the innocent people of that sovereign nation.  It's certainly not what he was telling his subjects a year ago, back when you could get thrown in jail for calling Putin's incursion a war rather than simply a "military operation". I'm guessing that still is true. 

There seems to be a majority of Russians who continue to support Putin's war but of course, conducting an accurate poll in Russia is about as unlikely as the proverbial herding of cats. Despite Grigory Yudin's words at the top of this post, it's a little hard for me, to imagine the Russian people, at least intelligent Russians with any sense of history, being swayed by attempts to indoctrinate them into going along with Putin's nonsense about the "de-nazification of a region that is and has always been in every way, an integral part of Russia."

On the other hand as we've been seeing in our own country over the last several years, there is no shortage of people who have no problem going along with anyone who tells them what they want to hear, facts be damned. 

Vladimir Putin, as has been laid bare for the world to see, leads a paper tiger of a military, fraught with massive corruption that goes all the way to the top. Its soldiers are mal-treated, ill-prepared, and above all at least in this case, have been lied to about the purpose of their mission. They are fighting against people many of whom share a similar language, culture, faith, and even ancestry. In short, there is little incentive for Russian soldiers to fight this war, other than the fear of punishment from their superiors. This is what necessitates all the nonsense propaganda about fighting Nazis. 

Consequently, up until now, the Russian military has been no match for the Ukrainians who have the support of the wealth and weaponry if not soldiers, from NATO members and other countries. What's more, they are hands down winning the battle in the court of public opinion all over the world. Far greater powers than Russia have learned from time immemorial that fighting against a well-funded, highly motivated army with international support, defending their home, in their home, is a very tall order at best, and more often than not, doomed to failure. 

But Putin has two things on his side right now, numbers, and his own depravity. As someone who has proven time and again that he believes the only life in Russia worth protecting is his own, Putin has no qualms about sending his country's children to their slaughter in order to fight his war.  Russia has a lot of children of fighting age. If this war drags on for years as many in Russia's military brass predict, every year will see more children become fighting age, able to go to Ukraine and die for Putin as well. 

Which is fine with him. 

His latest exercise in sociopathic behavior is conscripting prisoners, offering them deals of a get-out-of-jail-free card in exchange for serving in his war. As people in jail are of even less value to Putin than ordinary soldiers, with a minimum of training, ex-cons have been put on the front lines to serve as cannon fodder, while more experienced professional solders behind them, wait for the enemy to exhaust their ammunition as they slaughter the first waves of troops. 

With the vast number of "expendable" young Russians available to Putin, and many more to come, this senseless war could drag on for years. 

So what could put an end to it?

Total victory for one side or the other:

For Russia that would mean completely occupying Ukraine, even if it means doing what they did in Chechnya, nearly annihilate the country. That is probably what it would take for the Ukrainians to surrender as there would be nothing left to defend. 

Total victory for Ukraine would mean a complete withdrawal of Russia from their country, preferably followed by stiff reparations and Nuremburg style war crime tribunals leading all the way up to Putin. In order for that to happen, in the words of one military analyst I heard over the weekend: "Ukraine would have to take Moscow." Not a likely scenario. 

A negotiated peace:

Russia coming to the table would mean concessions from the Ukrainians who would almost certainly be forced to give up territory in the east such as the Donbass, in exchange for peace. The Ukrainians are unlikely to go for that as they have no interest in seeing their country torn apart but mostly because there would no guarantee there would be no more invasions in the future. 

Putin drops dead.

That would certainly be the most appealing scenario, although as an old Russian friend who lived there during the time of the Soviet Union always told me, "There will always be someone waiting to replace him..." Then in classic Russian fatalism he would add, "...probably someone worse."

In other words, be careful what you wish for.

For Putin's part, this past Tuesday he delivered a rambling speech to his country, the Russian version of the State of the Union Address. He brought up the usual same ol' same ol', about how the West is the real aggressor in this conflict, how we started the war, how our "liberal totalitarianism" is really the culprit, yadda yadda yadda. Then he brought up another evil that I wasn't aware of: how the Church of England is now advocating for... are you ready for this?... a gender-neutral God.

 

Shocking.

 

More importantly, Putin made it abundantly clear that all these things are worth fighting against and being the valiant culture warrior he is, he has no intention of giving up before he is finished ridding his nation of all those nasty threats and influences. 

Now I don't know much about the gender of gods but apparently Putin's god has a penis.

I would beg to differ about the other stuff however. As Joe Biden correctly said in a speech from Poland, just hours after Putin delivered his speech, the West has no intention, nor did it ever, of invading Russia. That would certainly be foolhardy. 

Perhaps the best summation of Putin's war is the following, found on a poster in Ukraine and recently repeated by U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken at a meeting of the UN Security Council last September:

If Russia stops fighting, there will be no war.

If Ukraine stops fighting, there will be no Ukraine. 

There you have it; that's why the Ukrainians fight, and that's why we support them.

 

It doesn't get much simpler than that.